A new global economic report is drawing a chilling parallel between the world of 2025 and the UK of 2018, using the delayed post-Brexit investment slump as a bellwether for a coming global downturn. The analysis suggests the world is in a temporary grace period before the full, painful effects of protectionism take hold.
The report explicitly references the UK’s experience, stating that business investment “started to fall steadily only beginning in 2018,” a significant time after the 2016 referendum. This delay, the report argues, is a crucial lesson in how major policy shocks are absorbed by an economy.
Now, this pattern is expected to repeat on a global scale. The world’s “unexpected resilience” and upgraded 3.2% growth for 2025 is seen as the equivalent of the UK’s 2016-2017 phase. The coming years, the report implies, will be the global version of 2018, when the steady decline in investment begins, leading to a “dim” overall outlook.
The UK, having already been through this cycle, is now facing the long-term consequences, including a G7-leading inflation problem. This serves as a further warning to the rest of the world about the lasting and complex damage that can result from such policy shocks.
While other risks like immigration curbs and frothy AI stocks are mentioned, the central analytical framework of the report is this historical parallel. The message is clear: we have seen this movie before, and we should be prepared for the inevitable second act.
