The Iran war is entering what market observers describe as a critical third week for global energy, and US oil prices are drawing international attention as the economic consequences of the conflict become more widely felt. Analyst Patrick De Haan has projected Monday pump prices at $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while $4 fuel remains a near-term possibility. The global attention on US oil prices reflects the central role that American energy costs play in the broader international economic outlook.
The crisis that has drawn global attention began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, a move that triggered an immediate and sustained rise in global oil prices. The national gasoline average has risen 23% from below $3 per gallon to $3.70, and the pace of increase has attracted commentary from international economic organizations and finance ministers around the world. The scale of the supply disruption created by three weeks of conflict is being felt not just in the US but across the global economy.
The US strike on Kharg Island on Friday, targeting Iran’s most important oil processing asset, added a significant new chapter to the conflict’s impact on global energy supply. Iran’s continuation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has denied world markets access to roughly 20% of global daily oil supply. Brent crude fluctuated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled near $94 following a brief Sunday spike to $100.
In the US, the domestic impact remains most acute in California, where average pump prices exceed $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations are posting above $8. Diesel for commercial freight could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. Oil executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each briefed White House officials on supply risks, with Exxon CEO Darren Woods warning specifically about the inflationary danger of speculative market activity.
Wall Street opened Monday with mild optimism, the S&P 500 rising roughly 1% as crude prices temporarily softened. Oil company stocks have reached record highs since the conflict began. The critical third week of the Iran war will be closely watched by markets around the world, as its outcome will significantly shape the near-term trajectory of US oil prices and the broader global energy outlook.
