A chilling question is beginning to form in the minds of European industrial leaders: is this the new normal? The fear is that the United States’ use of a “rolling list” of tariffs is not a temporary tactic but a permanent shift in trade strategy, ushering in an era of perpetual instability in transatlantic commerce.
Several factors fuel this concern. First, the policy has survived a change in US administration, evolving from the Trump era rather than being dismantled. This suggests it has deeper, more bipartisan roots in American protectionist sentiment.
Second, the mechanism of a tri-annual review seems designed for permanence. It creates a continuous process of trade friction, rather than a one-off dispute that can be resolved and forgotten. It institutionalizes the conflict.
Third, the ambiguity of the “derivative” concept gives the US a powerful and flexible tool that it may be reluctant to give up. It provides a constant source of leverage over its trading partners.
If this is the new normal, the implications are profound. It would mean that European businesses can never again count on a stable, rules-based trading relationship with the US. They would have to permanently factor in a high degree of political and regulatory risk into all their transatlantic dealings, which would inevitably lead to reduced trade and investment over the long term.
